The liberals' hope that Democrats can win back the presidency by drawing sharp ideological contrasts and energizing the partisan base is a fantasy that could cripple the party's efforts to return to power, according to a new study by two prominent Democratic analysts.
In the latest shot in a long-running war over the party's direction -- an argument turned more passionate after Democrat John F. Kerry's loss to President Bush last year -- two intellectuals who have been aligned with former president Bill Clinton warn that the only way back to victory is down the center.
Democrats must "admit that they cannot simply grow themselves out of their electoral dilemmas," wrote William A. Galston and Elaine C. Kamarck, in a report released yesterday. "The groups that were supposed to constitute the new Democratic majority in 2004 simply failed to materialize in sufficient number to overcome the right-center coalition of the Republican Party."
Since Kerry's defeat, some Democrats have urged that the party adopt a political strategy more like one pursued by Bush and his senior adviser, Karl Rove -- which emphasized robust turnout of the party base rather than relentless, Clinton-style tending to "swing voters."
But Galston and Kamarck, both of whom served in the Clinton White House, said there are simply not enough left-leaning voters to make this a workable strategy. In one of their more potentially controversial findings, the authors argue that the rising numbers and influence of well-educated, socially liberal voters in the Democratic Party are pulling the party further from most Americans.
On defense and social issues, "liberals espouse views diverging not only from those of other Democrats, but from Americans as a whole. To the extent that liberals now constitute both the largest bloc within the Democratic coalition and the public face of the party, Democratic candidates for national office will be running uphill."
I think that what is most interesting about this is the group that sponsored this study. Note their name: "Third-Way." Historically this term was a reference to the view among leftists and Democrats that there was some mythical 'third way' between capitalism and communism. One that would presumably retain the high economic achievements of the free market while allowing those same liberals and leftists to control the system and decide how to re-distribute wealth they themselves had not created. Let's take a look at what their website says:
There are some who believe that progressives simply need to better “message” their current economic agenda. We believe that is a fantasy. The middle class has heard the progressive agenda. Whether they simply don’t believe our policies will make an appreciable difference in their lives or whether they actually view our policies as harmful, they clearly are no longer motivated to support progressive ideas out of a sense that we are the indispensable defenders of their economic interests.
Translation: The public knows what we stand for now and they aren't buying it because they have a better understanding of how free markets work. They know that it is under a free market system that real growth and 'progress' is most likely to occur.
Third Way’s Middle Class Project is designed to re-forge the economic bond that once existed between progressives and middle class workers and families. We will do so by realigning progressive policies and narratives with the actual economic experiences, interests, and aspirations of today’s middle class. Third Way is using its idea network to conduct intensive research and engage in extensive consultations with leaders from academia, labor, business, and the non-profit sector to define the changing world of work and to develop a new, relevant progressive economic agenda. This work has three fundamental aspects:
Note here the continuing emphasis on class identification. For the left and the Democrats the Marxist notion of class warfare has yet to be abandoned for the fantasy that it is. That phrase, "realigning progressive policies and narratives" sounds very much like the current mantra that Democrats "need to get their message out." And just what do academia, labor and non-profits have to say about business and the economy that we don't already know?
And here is the money quote:
In addition to commissioned papers and reports, Third Way is engaging a broad idea network — The Third Way Idea Network — of leading experts to develop policy options that respond to the contemporary economic challenges facing the American middle class, as well as themes that communicate progressive economic values and priorities in ways that will resonate with middle class workers and their families.
In other words, "We need to get out message out and then they will vote for us."
The people who make up this group are obviously still mired in an outdated 19th century social and economic theory, Marxism, which has long outlived any possible relevance to the present day and which has been abandoned by both the public as well as conservative thinkers from every intellectual field.
Until the left gives up this quaint philosophy, they will remain in the minority. But looking at this group's website, we can conclude that it hasn't happened just yet.
Interestingly, Byron York wrote about this in his recent book "The Vast Left Wing Conspiracy," a book which I would recommend by the way. He pointed out that in the last presidential election the Democrats were in the position of having just as much money as Republicans and that they were able to turn out more voters than they ever had before. But it was still not enough to win.
And in the most recent 'dead tree' edition of The American Spectator, Peter J. Wallison argues that the election of 2004 demonstrated that the long awaited republican re-alignment has already occured.
The argument in favor of this position would be that the dominant and traditional American political outlook - defined as conservatism in the American idiom - favors smaller or limited government (with an exception for military strength), individual responsibility, and government policies that enhance equality of opportunity rather than equality of result. This was certainly the prevailing view of governemnt's role before the Great Depression and the New Deal. After a 40 year experiment with regulation, high taxes , and big government programs, it seems, Americans are resuming their traditional outlook. And Republicans - having since Reagan, established themselves as the conservative party - are the beneficiaries of this trend.
This article is not yet available on their website, so you might want to actually go to your local newstand and pick up this issue; it's a very interesting read.